Tuesday, June 06, 2006

A Finals for the ages?

I've been given permission to watch television at my maximum security prison in order to provide analysis on the upcoming Heat - Mavericks showdown. This one's going to be tricky, my friends. As many of you know - many - Ha! - I've been a long time Shaq fan, having followed him during my Los Angeles period. The Mavericks have no answer for him. But they have more of an answer than most teams, having 12 fouls to give for the first four games, and 18 over the next three, if it goes that far. The Heat are playing stifling defense, and many of the players seem to be peaking. But the Mavericks have plenty of firepower, includiing Jerry Stackhouse providing 14 points a game off the bench. As much as I want to say the Heat will plow right through the Mavericks, I simply can't. And how I want to!

This won't make any of the gamble junkies that rely on my predictions to feed their families happy, but I can't make a prediction on this one. One thing is sure: Dirk Nowitzki won't be going in for any layups, without paying a price. He's looked more aggressive, and somewhat spastic, in this playoffs compared to a year ago. And Dallas has learned to play defense. Pat Riley might want to try different looks, perhaps playing both Mourning and O'Neal at the same time to defend against the pick and roll. And this being the finals, the Big Aristotle, is focussed and hungry. If he can avoid early foul trouble, expect him to be a monster. This is what he's had his eye on ever since Karl Malone went down during the Western Conference Finals in 2004. And with a partner -Flash is the perfect nickname- who doesn't force the issue and makes it a point to feed the Big Dog, the Mavericks have their hands full.

It's a good bet Jason Williams won't be shooting 100% from the field throughout the finals. And it's unlikely Nowitski will light the Heat up for 50. Dallas beat San Antonio on a fluke play. And they were pushed to six against the centerless Phoenix Suns. But Miami was extended to six against the overmatched Chicago Bulls.

The truth is I have no fucking clue what will go down in this series. One thing is for sure: it's going to be exciting. Just like all of the playoffs this year. It's the beginning of a new era. Nothing can be taken for granted anymore, when the perennials get taken out in the conference semi-finals, and the Clippers outlast the Lakers and look good doing it.

We'll just have to tune in and watch.